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OmegaMan

Cinema 4D and Adobe

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Probably everyone knows that Allegorithmic is now joining with Adobe.  On various forums I hear some people are saying that Adobe's next "logical acquisition" will be Cinema 4D, with a consequent end to perpetual licenses.  I know nothing about these things so how do they reason that ?  4D seems perfectly strong on it's own and it would be sad if it fundamentally changed.

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There is absolutely zero information that would support this claim so it is simply a speculation. Got quite a few messages about this.

I believe the origin of this could be that MAXON new CEO was previously employed in Adobe. MAXON is growing every year and it's parent company seems to be quite pleased with result ( I am not expert but you can find all the data , it is public) so selling a winning horse doesn't make sense...

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MAXON is a Nementschek company. Nementschek is huge, checkout their (BIM) solutions, it goes far beyond what Adobe does and is more comparable to Bentley.

C4D would certainly fit perfectly into Adobe since it has already a tight integration in AE and AI and an easy to use UI and workflow. However MAXON is doing great and why would Nementschek sell it then.

Any software that goes to Adobe or Autodesk I'll immediately stop investing since I don't do rental or online activated software. Same now for Substance, Vue and Vray unfortunately.

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I'd say it's probably going to happen and was already agreed upon behind closed doors.  No one really knows about it because sales like this can be super secret.  David might not even know.  He was simply told send a resume to MAXON hint hint.  As to why they would sell C4D?  The answer is simple.  Money.  More money than C4D is projected to make in the next 100 years.  Making that much money in one quarter means a huge bonus for whoever is at the top of NEMETSCHECK.

 

Let's also not forget Blender could cut into C4D profits by a lot in the next few years.

 

What we know for sure is the founders have officially quit putting any effort of their own into C4D.  If you look at the lackluster updates of the last few years it would seem the founders stopped caring about C4D a long time before they put a new CEO in charge.  All of this together has the sale make a lot of sense.

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11 hours ago, Fastbee said:

As to why they would sell C4D?  The answer is simple.  Money.  More money than C4D is projected to make in the next 100 years.  Making that much money in one quarter means a huge bonus for whoever is at the top of NEMETSCHECK.

 

Let's also not forget Blender could cut into C4D profits by a lot in the next few years.

 

Just to put things into perspective. MAXON is a fairly small company, with IIRC about 150 employees. It's parent company Nementschek, worth about $4B. But Adobe is worth a whopping $120B.

 

To stick with your horse analogy, a winning horse today is not guaranteed to be that in the future. A horse could slow down, get sick, even break a leg. How would you explain to the shareholders that you turned down an offer worth 20x its actual value, more money than it would ever make given the best circumstances. The primary goal of business is to make money.

 

Of course, I hope none of this ever happens as I have come to despise Adobe and their forced subscription model. It's just that they have the ability to make an offer that would be hard to refuse.

 

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18 hours ago, Fastbee said:

More money than C4D is projected to make in the next 100 years

That is silly :)

I am not in money making business, but it seems to me that it is much better to earn frequently each year with steady growing curve than do a one time sell

16 hours ago, Jimh said:

Just to put things into perspective. MAXON is a fairly small company, with IIRC about 150 employees. It's parent company Nementschek, worth about $4B. But Adobe is worth a whopping $120B. 

That is also quite relative. Overall company worth is just one factor. Why would Adobe fork out gigantic sum of money when they can build their own 3D app from scratch for way less? They could just form a 3D department and work on it, right? Also, why now when MAXON is far larger and worth more every year? I just can't find a good, solid reason, both from logical and investment side for Adobe to even make an offer...

 

 


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10 hours ago, HSrdelic said:

Why would Adobe fork out gigantic sum of money when they can build their own 3D app from scratch for way less? They could just form a 3D department and work on it, right?

Maybe the biggest reason would be you could get almost the whole C4D user base to join the Adobe Creative Cloud.  Having all those apps and C4D for less than the MSA of current C4D alone would be pretty tempting.  Getting those extra users to be paying an annual fee for who knows how long would be great money.  They also make their current user base more happy and stay longer.

 

Reason two would be, even with Adobes power making a 3DCC program that is good would probably take them years and they don't get an established user base.  The user base of the newly made 3DCC app they make would have to be made from the ground up.  Doesn't the saying go a good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow?

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I strongly agree with Fastbee, I think it would be very convenient for Adobe to buy MAXON. About building their own software, remember that they bought Flash (and did not brought any major improvemement to it to my knowledge).

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Will this become reality today?

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